Kubva muna 2021 kusvika 2022, kwakava nekukura kukuru mumusika wepasi rose we semiconductor nekuda kwekubuda kwezvido zvakakosha zvakakonzereswa nedenda reCOVID-19. Zvisinei, sezvo zvido zvakakosha zvakakonzereswa nedenda reCOVID-19 zvakapera muhafu yekupedzisira ya2022 zvikapinda mune imwe yekudzikira kwakanyanya munhoroondo muna 2023.
Zvisinei, Kuderera Kwehupfumi Hwenyika kunotarisirwa kudzikira muna 2023, uye kudzoreredzwa kwakazara kunotarisirwa gore rino (2024).
Kutaura zvazviri, tichitarisa kutumirwa kwe semiconductor kwekota kwemarudzi akasiyana-siyana, Logic yatopfuura nhamba yepamusoro yakakonzerwa nezvinodiwa zvakakosha zveCOVID-19 uye yakaisa nhamba itsva yepamusoro munhoroondo. Pamusoro pezvo, Mos Micro neAnalog zvinogona kusvika panhamba yepamusoro munhoroondo muna 2024, sezvo kudzikira kwakakonzerwa nekupera kwezvinodiwa zvakakosha zveCOVID-19 kusina kukosha (Mufananidzo 1).
Pakati pavo, Mos Memory yakasangana nekudzikira kukuru, ndokuzodzika muchikamu chekutanga (Q1) cha2023 ndokutanga rwendo rwayo rwekupora. Zvisinei, zvinoita sekunge ichiri kuda nguva yakareba kuti isvike padanho repamusoro rezvinodiwa zvakanyanya zveCOVID-19. Zvisinei, kana Mos Memory ikapfuura nguva yayo yepamusoro, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa ne semiconductor pasina mubvunzo huchakwira zvakanyanya munhoroondo. Mukufunga kwangu, kana izvi zvikaitika, zvinogona kutaurwa kuti musika we semiconductor wapora zvizere.
Zvisinei, tichitarisa shanduko dziri kuitika mukutumira zvinhu zve semiconductor, zviri pachena kuti maonero aya haana kururama. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti, kunyange hazvo zvinhu zveMos Memory, zviri kudzoserwa, zvadzoserwa zvakanyanya, zvinhu zveLogic, zvakasvika pakakwirira munhoroondo, zvichiri padanho rakaderera zvikuru. Nemamwe mashoko, kuti zvimutsiridze musika wepasi rose we semiconductor, zvinhu zve logic zvinofanirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya.
Saka, muchinyorwa chino, tichaongorora kutumirwa kwe semiconductor nehuwandu hwemhando dzakasiyana dze semiconductors uye total semiconductors. Tevere, tichashandisa musiyano uripo pakati pekutumira kweLogic nekutumira semuenzaniso kuratidza kuti kutumirwa kwe wafers dzeTSMC kuri kusaririra sei kunyangwe kudzorerwa nekukurumidza. Pamusoro pezvo, tichafungidzira kuti nei musiyano uyu uripo uye tinokurudzira kuti kudzorerwa kwakazara kwemusika we semiconductor wepasi rose kunogona kunonoka kusvika muna 2025.
Mukupedzisa, kuoneka kuri kuita musika we semiconductor pari zvino i "fungidziro" inokonzerwa nemaGPU eNVIDIA, ane mitengo yakakwira zvikuru. Saka, zvinoita sekunge musika we semiconductor hauzodzokeri zvizere kusvika ma foundry akaita seTSMC asvika pakukwana uye Logic shipping yasvika pakakwirira patsva.
Kuongororwa kweKukosha kweKutumirwa kweSemiconductor uye Huwandu
Mufananidzo wechipiri unoratidza mafambiro ekukosha kwekutumira uye huwandu hwemhando dzakasiyana dzema semiconductor pamwe chete nemusika wese we semiconductor.
Huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa neMos Micro hwakakwira zvakanyanya muchikamu chechina cha2021, hukadzika zvishoma nezvishoma muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, uye hwakatanga kudzoreredzwa. Kune rumwe rutivi, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa hahuna kuratidza shanduko huru, hwakaramba hwakafanana nehwepakati kubva muchikamu chechitatu kusvika chechina cha2023, nekuderera kudiki.
Kukosha kweMos Memory kwakatanga kudzikira zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, kwakadzikira muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokutanga kukwira, asi kwakangodzoka kusvika pa40% yehuwandu hwepamusoro muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete. Panguva iyi, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa hwadzoka kusvika pa94% yehuwandu hwepamusoro. Nemamwe mashoko, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinoshandiswa mufekitori nevagadziri vememory hunoonekwa sehuri kusvika pakukwana kwakazara. Mubvunzo ndewekuti mitengo yeDRAM neNAND flash ichakwira zvakadii.
Huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa neLogic hwakakwira zvakanyanya muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, hwakadzika pasi muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokuzodzoka patsva, zvichisvika pakakwirira patsva muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete. Kune rumwe rutivi, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa hwakakwira zvakanyanya muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, ndokuzoderera kusvika panosvika 65% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa zvakanyanya muchikamu chechitatu cha2023 uye hwakaramba hwakamira zvakanaka muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete. Nemamwe mashoko, pane musiyano mukuru pakati pemaitiro ehuwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa nehuwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa muLogic.
Huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa neanalog hwakakwira zvakanyanya muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2022, hwakaderera zvakanyanya muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2023, uye kubvira ipapo hwakaramba hwakagadzikana. Kune rumwe rutivi, mushure mechikamu chepamusoro chegore rechitatu chegore ra2022, kukosha kwezvinhu zvakatumirwa kwakaramba kuchiderera kusvika muchikamu chechina chegore ra2023.
Pakupedzisira, kukosha kwese kwekutakura zvinhu zve semiconductor kwakadzikira zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, kwakadzikira muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, uye kwakatanga kukwira, kuchidzoka kusvika pa96% yehuwandu hwepamusoro muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete. Kune rumwe rutivi, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakatumirwa hwakadzikirawo zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, hwakadzikira muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, asi kubvira ipapo hwakaramba hwakamira, pa75% yehuwandu hwepamusoro.
Kubva pane zviri pamusoro apa, zvinoita sekunge Mos Memory ndiyo nzvimbo ine dambudziko kana huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa hukatariswa chete, sezvo yakangodzoka kusvika pa40% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa. Zvisinei, tichitarisa zvakadzama, tinogona kuona kuti Logic inyaya huru, sezvo kunyangwe yakasvika pakakwirira muhuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa, huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa hwakamira pa65% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa. Mhedzisiro yemusiyano uyu pakati pehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa neLogic inoita kunge ichienda kumunda wese we semiconductor.
Muchidimbu, kudzoreredzwa kwemusika wepasi rose we semiconductor kunoenderana nekuti mitengo yeMos Memory inowedzera here uye kuti huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa zveLogic hunowedzera zvakanyanya here. Nemitengo yeDRAM neNAND ichiramba ichikwira, dambudziko guru richave kuwedzera huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa zveLogic.
Tevere, tichatsanangura maitiro ehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa neTSMC uye zvinhu zvinotumirwa newafer kuti tinyatsoratidza musiyano uripo pakati pehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa neLogic uye zvinhu zvinotumirwa newafer.
Kukosha kwekutumira kweTSMC kota yega yega uye Kutumirwa kweWafer
Mufananidzo 3 unoratidza kupatsanurwa kwekutengesa kweTSMC ne node uye mafambiro ekutengesa e7nm uye pamusoro pemaitiro mukota yechina ya2023.
TSMC yakaona 7nm zvichikwira sema "advanced nodes". Muchikamu chechina cha2023, 7nm yaive 17%, 5nm yaive 35%, uye 3nm yaive 15%, zvichiita 67% yema "advanced nodes". Pamusoro pezvo, kutengeswa kwekota ye "advanced nodes" kwave kuri kuwedzera kubva muchikamu chekutanga cha2021, kwakava nekuderera kamwe chete muchikamu chechina cha2022, asi kwakadzika ndokutanga kukwira zvakare muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, kusvika pakakwirira patsva muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete.
Nemamwe mashoko, kana ukatarisa mashandiro ekutengesa ema "advanced nodes", TSMC inoita zvakanaka. Saka, ko mari inowanikwa neTSMC mukota yegore negore pamwe ne "wafer shipping" (Mufananidzo 4)?
Chati yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa neTSMC mukota yegore uye huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa newafer zvinoenderana. Yakasvika pakakwirira panguva ye2000 IT bubble, yakaderera mushure mekudonha kweLehman muna 2008, uye yakaramba ichiderera mushure mekuputika kwe2018 memory bubble.
Zvisinei, maitiro mushure mekukwira kwehuwandu hwezvinhu zvakakosha muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2022 akasiyana. Kukosha kwekutumira zvinhu kwakasvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemaviri ($20.2 bhiriyoni), ndokuzodzikira zvakanyanya asi kwakatanga kukwira mushure mekudzika pamadhora mabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu ($15.7 bhiriyoni) muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2023, kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni gumi nemapfumbamwe ($19.7 bhiriyoni) muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete, inova 97% yemutengo wepamusoro.
Kune rumwe rutivi, huwandu hwemawafers ekota hwakasvika pa3.97 miriyoni muchikamu chechitatu chegore ra2022, ndokuzodzikira, zvichidzika kusvika pa2.92 miriyoni mawafers muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2023, asi hwakaramba hwakamira zvakanaka mushure mezvo. Kunyangwe muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chete, kunyangwe huwandu hwemawafers akatumirwa hwakaderera zvakanyanya kubva pachikamu chepamusoro, hwakaramba huri pa2.96 miriyoni mawafers, kudzikira kweawafers anopfuura miriyoni imwe kubva pachikamu chepamusoro.
Muchina unonyanya kugadzirwa neTSMC unonzi Logic. Kutengeswa kwemhando yepamusoro muchikamu chechina chegore ra2023 neTSMC kwakasvika padanho repamusoro, nekutengesa kwacho kwakawedzera kusvika pa97% yehuwandu hwepamusoro hwenhoroondo. Zvisinei, kutumirwa kwewafer kota imwe chete kwaive kuchiri kupfuura mawafer miriyoni imwe chete pasi penguva yepamusoro. Nemamwe mashoko, huwandu hwekushandiswa kwefekitori yeTSMC hunenge 75%.
Nezvemusika wepasi rose we semiconductor, kutumirwa kweLogic kwaderera kusvika panosvika 65% yehuwandu hwepamusoro panguva yekudiwa kweCOVID-19. Nguva dzose, kutumirwa kwewafer kweTSMC kwekota yega yega kwakaderera neanopfuura miriyoni imwe chete kubva pahuwandu hwepamusoro, uye mwero wekushandiswa kwefekitori unofungidzirwa kuva panosvika 75%.
Tichitarisa mberi, kuti musika wepasi rose we semiconductor ugadzirike zvechokwadi, Logic shippings inofanira kuwedzera zvakanyanya, uye kuti izvi zviitike, mwero wekushandiswa kwe foundries dzinotungamirwa neTSMC unofanirwa kusvika pahuwandu hwakazara.
Saka, izvi zvichaitika rini chaizvo?
Kufanotaura Kushandiswa Kwemari Yemakambani Makuru Akagadzirwa
Musi wa14 Zvita, 2023, kambani yekutsvagisa yeTaiwan TrendForce yakaita musangano we "Industry Focus Information" paGrand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Pamusangano uyu, muongorori weTrendForce Joanna Chiao akakurukura nezve "TSMC's Global Strategy uye Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook ye2024." Pakati pezvimwe zvinhu, Joanna Chiao akataura nezvekufanotaura mitengo yekushandisa foundry (Mufananidzo
Kutumirwa kweLogic kuchawedzera rini?
Izvi zvine kukosha here kana kuti hazvina basa? Kunyangwe mubvunzo uyu uri mudiki, kunyangwe panosvika gore ra2026, 92% yasara yemawafers icharamba ichidyiwa nemachipisi e semiconductor asiri eAI. Ruzhinji rweaya ruchava machipisi eLogic. Saka, kuti zvinhu zvinotumirwa neLogic zviwedzere uye kuti ma foundries makuru anotungamirwa neTSMC asvike pakukwana, kudiwa kwemidziyo yemagetsi yakaita semafoni, maPC, uye maseva kunofanirwa kuwedzera.
Muchidimbu, zvichibva pamamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino, handifungi kuti maAI semiconductors akaita seNVIDIA's GPUs ndiwo achatiponesa. Saka, zvinofungidzirwa kuti musika wepasi rose we semiconductors hauzogadzirisiki zvizere kusvika muna 2024, kana kutononoka kusvika muna 2025.
Zvisinei, pane imwe mukana (wetariro) unogona kukanganisa kufanotaura uku.
Kusvika pari zvino, maAI semiconductor ese akatsanangurwa anga achireva maAI semiconductor akaiswa mumaserver. Zvisinei, pari zvino pane tsika yekuita AI processing pamaterminal (edges) akadai semakombiyuta, mafoni, uye mapiritsi.
Mienzaniso inosanganisira Intel's AI PC yakarongwa uye Samsung yakaedza kugadzira mafoni eAI. Kana aya akava akakurumbira (nemamwe mashoko, kana hunyanzvi hukaitika), musika weAI semiconductor uchakura nekukurumidza. Kutaura zvazviri, kambani yekutsvagisa yeUS Gartner inofanotaura kuti panosvika kuguma kwa2024, mafoni eAI achatumirwa anosvika mamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mana emayuniti, uye mafoni eAI achatumirwa anosvika mamiriyoni makumi mashanu nemana nemazana mashanu nemashanu emayuniti (sekutarisa chete). Kana kufanotaura uku kukaitika, kudiwa kweLogic yemazuva ano kuchawedzera (maererano nekukosha kwekutumira uye huwandu), uye mwero wekushandiswa kwema foundries akadai seTSMC uchakwira. Pamusoro pezvo, kudiwa kwemaMPU ne memory kuchakurawo nekukurumidza.
Nemamwe mashoko, kana nyika yakadaro yasvika, maAI semiconductors anofanira kuva muponesi chaiye. Saka, kubva zvino zvichienda mberi, ndinoda kutarisa pane mafambiro ema edge AI semiconductors.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-08-2024