Kubva 2021 kusvika 2022, pakanga paine kukurumidza kukura mumusika wepasi rose semiconductor nekuda kwekubuda kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvakakonzerwa neCOVID-19 kubuda.Nekudaro, sezvo izvo zvakakosha zvakakonzerwa neCCIDID-19 denda zvakapera muhafu yekupedzisira ya2022 uye zvakanyura mune imwe yeakanyanya kudzikira munhoroondo muna 2023.
Nekudaro, iyo Great Recession inotarisirwa kudzikira muna 2023, paine kudzoreredza kwakazara kunotarisirwa gore rino (2024).
Muchokwadi, tichitarisa kutakurwa kwekota semiconductor mumhando dzakasiyana siyana, Logic yakatopfuura iyo yepamusoro yakakonzerwa nezvinodiwa zvakakosha zveCCIDID-19 uye kuseta nhoroondo nyowani yakakwirira.Pamusoro pezvo, Mos Micro neAnalog vangangosvika munhoroondo dzakakwirira muna 2024, sezvo kudzikira kwakakonzerwa nekupera kweCCIDID-19 zvakakosha zvisina kukosha (Mufananidzo 1).
Pakati pavo, Mos Memory yakaona kudzikira kwakanyanya, ndokuzodzika mukota yekutanga (Q1) ya2023 ndokutanga rwendo rwayo rwekupora.Nekudaro, zvinoita sekunge zvichiri kuda nguva yakati rebei kuti usvike pamusoro peCOVID-19 yakakosha zvinodiwa.Nekudaro, kana Mos Memory ikapfuura peak yayo, semiconductor yakazara yekutakura pasina mubvunzo icharova imwe nhoroondo yakakwirira.Mune maonero angu, kana izvi zvikaitika, zvinogona kutaurwa kuti misika ye semiconductor yakadzorerwa zvakakwana.
Zvisinei, tichitarisa kuchinja kwekutumira semiconductor, zviri pachena kuti maonero aya haana kururama.Izvi zvinodaro nekuti, nepo kutakurwa kweMos Memory, iyo iri kupora, yapora zvakanyanya, kutumirwa kweLogic, iyo yakasvika munhoroondo dzakakwirira, ichiri yakaderera zvakanyanya.Mune mamwe mazwi, kumutsidzira zvechokwadi musika wepasi rose semiconductor, kutumirwa kwezvikamu zvelogic kunofanirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya.
Naizvozvo, mune ino chinyorwa, isu tichaongorora semiconductor kutakura uye huwandu hwemhando dzakasiyana dzesemiconductors uye yakazara semiconductors.Tevere, isu tichashandisa mutsauko uripo pakati peLogic kutakura uye kutakura semuenzaniso kuratidza kuti TSMC inotakura mawafers iri kusarira kumashure kunyangwe nekukurumidza kupora.Pamusoro pezvo, isu tichafungidzira kuti sei musiyano uyu uripo uye tinokurudzira kuti kudzoreredza kuzere kwemusika wepasi rose semiconductor kunogona kunonoka kusvika 2025.
Mukupedzisa, kutaridzika kwazvino kwe semiconductor musika kudzoreredza "kunyepedzera" kunokonzerwa neNVIDIA's GPUs, ine mitengo yakakwira zvakanyanya.Naizvozvo, zvinoita sekunge musika wesemiconductor hauzonyatso kupora kudzamara mafekitori akadai seTSMC asvika pakuzara uye Logic shipments inosvika kutsva kwenhoroondo yakakwirira.
Semiconductor Shipment Value uye Quantity Analysis
Mufananidzo 2 unoratidza mafambiro mukukosha kwekutakura uye huwandu hwemhando dzakasiyana dzesemiconductors pamwe nemusika wese semiconductor.
Huwandu hwekutakura hweMos Micro hwakakwira muchikamu chechina cha2021, hwakadzika muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokutanga kupora.Nekune rimwe divi, huwandu hwekutakura hwakaratidza kusanduka kwakakosha, kusara kwakatsetseka kubva pachikamu chechitatu kusvika kuchikamu chechina cha2023, nekudzikira zvishoma.
Kukosha kwekutumira kwaMos Memory kwakatanga kudzikira zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, chakadzikira muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokutanga kukwira, asi chakazongodzora kusvika pamakumi mana muzana ehuwandu hwepamusoro muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero.Zvichakadaro, huwandu hwekutakura hwadzokera kusvika ku94% yedanho repamusoro.Mune mamwe mazwi, chiyero chekushandisa fekitori chevagadziri vendangariro chinoonekwa sekusvika kuzere.Mubvunzo ndewokuti yakawanda sei DRAM neNAND flash mitengo ichawedzera.
Huwandu hwekutakurwa kweLogic hwakakwira muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, hwakadzika muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokuzodzokororwa, huchisvika kunhoroondo itsva muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero.Kune rimwe divi, kukosha kwekutumira kwakakwira muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, ndokuzoramba kusvika pamakumi matanhatu neshanu muzana ehuwandu hwepamusoro muchikamu chechitatu cha2023 uye chakaramba chakapfava muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero.Mune mamwe mazwi, pane mutsauko wakakura pakati pemaitiro emutengo wekutumira uye huwandu hwekutumira muLogic.
Huwandu hwekutakurwa kweanalog hwakakwira muchikamu chechitatu cha2022, hwakadzika muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, uye kubva zvino hwaramba hwakagadzikana.Kune rimwe divi, mushure mekukwira muchikamu chechitatu che2022, kukosha kwekutumira kwakaramba kuchidzika kusvika chikamu chechina cha2023.
Chekupedzisira, kukosha kwesemiconductor yekutakura kwakadzikira zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, chakadzikira muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, ndokutanga kukwira, kudzoreredza kusvika ku96% yehuwandu hwepamusoro muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero.Nekune rimwe divi, huwandu hwekutakura hwakadzikirawo zvakanyanya kubva muchikamu chechipiri cha2022, hwakadzika muchikamu chekutanga cha2023, asi chakaramba chakati chechetere, panosvika makumi manomwe neshanu muzana ehuwandu hwepamusoro.
Kubva pane zviri pamusoro, zvinoita sekunge Mos Memory ndiyo ine dambudziko kana huwandu hwekutumira huchitariswa, sezvo hwangodzora kusvika kunosvika makumi mana muzana ehuwandu hwepamusoro.Nekudaro, tichitora maonero akatambanuka, tinogona kuona kuti Logic inonetsa huru, sezvo kunyangwe ichisvika nhoroondo yepamusoro muhuwandu hwekutakura, kukosha kwekutakura kwakamira kunosvika 65% yehukoshi hwepamusoro.Mhedzisiro yemusiyano uyu pakati pehuwandu hwekutakura kweLogic uye kukosha kunoita sekuwedzera kune yese semiconductor ndima.
Muchidimbu, kudzoreredza kwemusika wepasi rose semiconductor kunoenderana nekuti mitengo yeMos Memory inowedzera uye kana huwandu hwekutumira hweLogic units hunowedzera zvakanyanya.Nemitengo yeDRAM neNAND inoramba ichikwira, nyaya hombe ichave iri kuwedzera huwandu hwekutumira hweLogic zvikamu.
Tevere, isu tichatsanangura maitiro ehuwandu hwekutakura kweTSMC uye kutakura kwewafer kunyatso ratidza musiyano uripo pakati pehuwandu hwekutakura kweLogic uye kutakura kwewafer.
TSMC Quarterly Shipment Value uye Wafer Shipments
Mufananidzo 3 unoratidza kuparara kwekutengesa kweTSMC nenode uye maitiro ekutengesa e7nm uye pamusoro pemaitiro muchikamu chechina cha2023.
TSMC inomira 7nm uye kupfuura seyakakwira node.Muchikamu chechina cha2023, 7nm yakaverengera 17%, 5nm ye35%, uye 3nm ye15%, inokwana 67% yemanodhi epamberi.Pamusoro pezvo, kutengeswa kwekota kwenzvimbo dzepamusoro kwave kuwedzera kubva muchikamu chekutanga cha2021, kwakadzikira kamwe chete muchikamu chechina cha2022, asi kwakadzikira kunze ndokutanga kusimuka zvakare muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, ichisvika panhoroondo itsva. chikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero.
Mune mamwe mazwi, kana iwe ukatarisa mashandiro ekutengesa kwemanode epamberi, TSMC inoita zvakanaka.Saka, zvakadii nezve TSMC's yakazara quarterly yekutengesa mari uye wafer kutumira (Mufananidzo 4)?
Chati yeTSMC yekota yekutakura kukosha uye kutakura kwewafer kunoenderana.Yakakwira panguva ye2000 IT bubble, yakaramba mushure mekuvhunduka kwa2008 Lehman, uye yakaramba ichidzika mushure mekuputika kweiyo 2018 memory bubble.
Nekudaro, maitiro mushure mepamusoro peiyo yakakosha kudiwa muchikamu chechitatu che2022 anosiyana.Kukosha kwekutumira kwakakwira kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemazana maviri, ndokuzodzikira zvakanyanya asi kwakatanga kudzokororwa mushure mekubuda pamadhora mabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu nemazana manomwe muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi maviri nenomwe muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero, inova 97% yehuwandu hwepamusoro.
Nekune rimwe divi, kutakurwa kwekota kwakakwira kusvika pamamirioni mazana matatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemanomwe muchikamu chechitatu cha2022, ndokudonha, kudzika kusvika pamamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemaviri muchikamu chechipiri cha2023, asi chakaramba chakati nyangara ipapo.Kunyangwe muchikamu chechina chegore rimwe chetero, kunyangwe huwandu hwemawafer akatumirwa akadzikira zvakanyanya kubva pakakwirira, hwakaramba huri pa2.96 miriyoni mawafers, kuderedzwa kweanopfuura miriyoni mawafers kubva pamusoro.
Iyo yakajairika semiconductor inogadzirwa neTSMC ndeye Logic.TSMC yechina-kota 2023 kutengesa kwemanodhi epamusoro akasvika pakakwirira nhoroondo, nekutengesa kwese kudzoreredza kusvika 97% yenhoroondo yepamusoro.Nekudaro, kutakurwa kwekota kwewaferi kwanga kuchiri kudarika miriyoni imwe pasi pane panguva yepamusoro.Mune mamwe mazwi, TSMC's yakazara fekitori yekushandiswa mwero ingangoita 75%.
Nezve musika wepasi rose semiconductor yese, Logic kutakura kwadzikira kusvika kunosvika makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana epamusoro panguva yeCOVID-19 yakakosha nguva yekuda.Sezvineiwo, TSMC yekota yekutakura wafer yakadzikira neanopfuura miriyoni mawafers kubva pamusoro, nehuwandu hwekushandisa fekitori hunofungidzirwa kunge hunosvika makumi manomwe neshanu muzana.
Tichitarisa kumberi, kuti musika wepasi rose semiconductor unyatso kupora, Logic shipments dzinoda kuwedzera zvakanyanya, uye kuti zvizadzise izvi, mwero wekushandisa wevakatanga inotungamirwa neTSMC unofanirwa kusvika kwakazara.
Saka, izvi zvichaitika rini chaizvo?
Kufanotaura Kushandiswa Matengo eMakuru Foundries
Musi waZvita 14, 2023, kambani yekutsvagisa yeTaiwan TrendForce yakaita musangano we "Industry Focus Information" paGrand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel.Pamusangano uyu, muongorori weTrendForce Joanna Chiao akakurukura nezve "TSMC's Global Strategy uye Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook ye2024."Pakati pezvimwe misoro, Joanna Chiao akataura nezve kufanotaura mazinga ekushandiswa kwekutanga (Mufananidzo
Ko Logic shipments ichawedzera riini?
Iyi 8% yakakosha here kana kuti haina kukosha?Kunyangwe uyu uri mubvunzo wakajeka, kunyangwe ne2026, iyo 92% yasara yewafers ichiri kudyiwa neasiri-AI semiconductor machipisi.Iyo yakawanda yeiyi ichave Logic chips.Naizvozvo, kuti Logic kutakura kuwedzere uye kune makuru ekutanga anotungamirwa neTSMC kuti asvike pakukwana, kudiwa kwemidziyo yemagetsi senge ma smartphones, maPC, uye maseva kunofanirwa kuwedzera.
Muchidimbu, zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo, handitendi kuti maAI semiconductors seNVIDIA's GPUs ichave muponesi wedu.Naizvozvo, zvinotendwa kuti musika wepasi rose semiconductor haungadzorere zvizere kusvika 2024, kana kunonoka kusvika 2025.
Nekudaro, pane imwe (tarisiro) mukana unogona kupidigura fungidziro iyi.
Parizvino, ese maAI semiconductors akatsanangurwa anga achireva semiconductors akaiswa mumaseva.Nekudaro, iko zvino kune maitiro ekuita AI kugadzirisa pamaterminals (micheto) senge makomputa emunhu, mafoni, uye mahwendefa.
Mienzaniso inosanganisira Intel's yakarongwa AI PC uye Samsung kuedza kugadzira AI smartphones.Kana izvi zvikave zvakakurumbira (nemamwe mazwi, kana hutsva hukaitika), iyo AI semiconductor musika inokurumidza kuwedzera.Asi izvo, iyo US yekutsvagisa kambani Gartner inofanotaura kuti pakupera kwa2024, kutumirwa kweAI smartphones kuchasvika 240 miriyoni mayunitsi, uye kutumirwa kweAI PCs kuchasvika 54.5 miriyoni mayunitsi (yekungoreva chete).Kana fungidziro iyi ikazadzikiswa, kudiwa kwekucheka-kumucheto Logic kuchawedzera (maererano nemutengo wekutumira uye huwandu), uye mitengo yekushandiswa kwezvakatanga seTSMC ichakwira.Pamusoro pezvo, kudiwa kweMPUs uye ndangariro zvichakurawo nekukurumidza.
Mune mamwe mazwi, kana nyika yakadai yasvika, AI semiconductors anofanira kunge ari muponesi chaiye.Naizvozvo, kubva zvino zvichienda mberi, ndinoda kutarisa pane maitiro ekumucheto AI semiconductors.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-08-2024